Global Risk Forecast: Q2 2026 — The Season of Friction

Q2 2026 will be characterized not by a single defining crisis, but by the convergence of multiple, interdependent pressures across geopolitical, cyber, and environmental domains.
Africa’s Two Roads Out of Beijing

China builds influence in Africa through massive infrastructure projects as the US pushes global de-risking—leaving Africa balancing both powers.
Auld Lang Sigh: Confetti, Champagne, and Counterterrorism

An ISIS-inspired New Year’s Eve plot was quietly stopped—another reminder that modern extremism is solitary, digital, and often prevented before midnight. Consider contacting RMS International’s Intelligence Services to protect you or your organization’s people, assets, operations, and reputation. Sustained and proactive vigilance, through threat assessments, social media monitoring, and proactive intelligence efforts remain essential to preventing violence that I increasingly personal, opportunistic, and designed for emotional impact as opposed to strategic gain.
RMS International: January 2026 Look Ahead

RMS International’s Intelligence Services have identified 20 holidays, religious observances, socio-cultural, and protest events in January 2026. The identified events in January 2026 may prompt pedestrian and traffic congestion, protests and possible riots, business closures and other significant impacts. Consider contacting RMSI’s Intelligence Services for access to analysts and a customized threat assessments on the threats posed by events occurring in January 2026.
Where Warmth Meets Warning: The Quiet Vulnerabilities of Holiday Gatherings

Holiday celebrations bring light and community, but also crowded, symbolic spaces where joy and vulnerability meet, demanding quiet, careful guardianship.
The New Quiet Men: The Re-Emergence of the New Irish Republican Army

New IRA resurges quietly amid post-Brexit grievances, drawing disaffected youth and testing Northern Ireland’s fragile, unfinished peace.
December 2025 Look Ahead

The most critical global security flashpoint this week is the diplomatic-military interface in the Ukraine–Russia war. Negotiations for a “peace framework” are actively underway, with high stakes for European security architecture, alliance cohesion, territorial norms, and downstream cascading risks.
When Global Markets Get the Geopoli-Jitters

Markets have the “geopoli-jitters” as global tensions shake stocks, crypto, and supply chains. In 2026, resilience, not certainty, will ultimately define success. Consider contacting RMSI’s Intelligence Services for access to analysts and a customized threat assessments on the threats posed by the stagnant or down-trending global market events and the potential impact on an organization’s people, assets, operations, and reputation.