RMS International: Global Threat Assessment — Q4 2025
Major interstate wars and protracted high-intensity conflicts (notably the Russia–Ukraine war and the Israel–Gaza war) will remain the primary drivers of acute humanitarian crises, regional instability, and global political polarization through Q4 2025. Continued kinetic operations, strikes on infrastructure, and large population displacements will sustain refugee flows, food-security shocks, and pressure on regional states and humanitarian organizations.