March 2026 Look Ahead
March 2026 presents a dynamic and event-driven risk environment shaped by the US election cycle, global protest activity tied to Middle East conflict spillover, religious observances, seasonal travel surges, and labor activism. Risk levels fluctuate throughout the month, with several identifiable high-impact dates requiring enhanced monitoring and protective posture adjustments. Additionally, The US Department of Homeland Security has warned of potential lone-actor and cyberattacks amid the ongoing strikes in Iran.
Situation Report: Cartel Violence in Mexico (Cutoff: 1200 ET, 24 Feb 2026)
The reported killing of CJNG leader Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”) in a Mexican special forces operation in Jalisco on 22 Feb 2026 triggered a rapid, coordinated retaliation pattern—narco-bloqueos (road blockades with burned vehicles), armed attacks on security forces, and localized clashes—with the epicenter in Jalisco and spillover effects into neighboring states; near-term risk is elevated for highways, security installations, and symbolic targets, with intermittent transport disruption and a credible possibility of follow-on reprisals as CJNG manages succession and signals capability.
Maritime Fault Lines in the Americas and the Quiet Currents of Increasing Conflict
US–Venezuela tensions escalate as the Caribbean becomes a maritime battleground, with the US targeting narco-state vessels and reshaping regional security.
North American Infrastructure: The New Front Line
US infrastructure faces growing hybrid threats—cyber and physical attacks eroding resilience, trust, and stability as America races to adapt.
Auld Lang Sigh: Confetti, Champagne, and Counterterrorism
An ISIS-inspired New Year’s Eve plot was quietly stopped—another reminder that modern extremism is solitary, digital, and often prevented before midnight. Consider contacting RMS International’s Intelligence Services to protect you or your organization’s people, assets, operations, and reputation. Sustained and proactive vigilance, through threat assessments, social media monitoring, and proactive intelligence efforts remain essential to preventing violence that I increasingly personal, opportunistic, and designed for emotional impact as opposed to strategic gain.
RMS International: January 2026 Look Ahead
RMS International’s Intelligence Services have identified 20 holidays, religious observances, socio-cultural, and protest events in January 2026. The identified events in January 2026 may prompt pedestrian and traffic congestion, protests and possible riots, business closures and other significant impacts. Consider contacting RMSI’s Intelligence Services for access to analysts and a customized threat assessments on the threats posed by events occurring in January 2026.