Global Risk Forecast: Q2 2026 — The Season of Friction
Q2 2026 will be characterized not by a single defining crisis, but by the convergence of multiple, interdependent pressures across geopolitical, cyber, and environmental domains.
Forecasting Friction: When Predictions Meet Reality
As Q1 2026 concludes, early developments are aligning closely with RMS International’s Global Threat Forecast, reinforcing a security environment defined by converging geopolitical tensions, infrastructure fragility, and emerging technologies.
The Narrows of the Arabian Peninsula
The Strait of Oman becomes a growing 2026 flashpoint as Iran, Gulf states, and non-state actors are turning this vital maritime corridor into a zone of rising risk.
Maritime Fault Lines in the Americas and the Quiet Currents of Increasing Conflict
US–Venezuela tensions escalate as the Caribbean becomes a maritime battleground, with the US targeting narco-state vessels and reshaping regional security.