Global Risk Forecast: Q2 2026 — The Season of Friction
Q2 2026 will be characterized not by a single defining crisis, but by the convergence of multiple, interdependent pressures across geopolitical, cyber, and environmental domains.
The Narrows of the Arabian Peninsula
The Strait of Oman becomes a growing 2026 flashpoint as Iran, Gulf states, and non-state actors are turning this vital maritime corridor into a zone of rising risk.
The European Continental Drift
Populism surges across Europe as fringe parties gain power, straining EU unity and reshaping alliances in a continent drifting toward nationalism.