Executive Summary
- Large-scale gatherings, such as fireworks displays, concerts, and sporting events, have long been considered attractive targets for lone actors or extremist groups.
- Expect increased patrols, bag checks, and drone surveillance in major metro area.
- With global tensions still simmering after recent cyber operations involving state-backed actors, there’s growing concern about coordinated digital disruption over the holiday period.
- Federal agencies have warned that disinformation campaigns aimed at stoking political division could spike in the lead-up to the election season—and July 4 presents an ideal cultural flashpoint.
- Consider contacting RMS International’s Intelligence Services for a detailed, customized threat assessment on Independence Day-specific threats that could impact your organization, people, assets, operations, and reputation.
Introduction
As Americans gear up for a long weekend of parades, fireworks, and backyard barbecues, local, state, and federal government officials are preparing for a different kind of celebration—one marked by heightened vigilance, situational awareness, and operational readiness. With the Fourth of July falling on a Thursday this year, many are expecting extended travel, crowded public events, and increased strain on local infrastructure. That also means a broader window of opportunity for disruption. From domestic unrest to international flashpoints, here are the key risks to watch this Independence Day:
Large-scale gatherings, such as fireworks displays, concerts, and sporting events, have long been considered attractive targets for lone actors or extremist groups. Recently, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s Khorasan franchise attempted to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, Austria. In 2025, officials remain particularly concerned about soft targets with minimal screening—especially in midsize cities or suburban areas where security presence may be limited. Additionally, following “Operation Rising Lion” there has been an increased fear of Iranian state-sponsored “sleeper cells” already operating inside the United States. While a direct attack on the US homeland remains extremely unlikely, rogue individuals could attempt a limited scale attack, such as the recent terrorist attack in Boulder, Colorado. Additionally, anti-Isreal protestors and activists associated with “No Kings Day” and the 50150 movement may use large community gatherings as a forced audience for their demonstrations. Whether you are attending a small-town celebration or a big city’s elaborate firework display, expect increased patrols, bag checks, and drone surveillance in major metro areas.
With global tensions still simmering after recent cyber operations involving state-backed actors, there’s growing concern about coordinated digital disruption over the holiday period. Public infrastructure, including transportation systems, local government websites, and emergency communications, could be vulnerable to opportunistic attacks timed to exploit holiday staffing gaps. Organizations are advised to monitor their networks closely and ensure all critical patches are up to date before the long weekend.
The Middle East remains volatile, with conflict escalation between Israel and Iranian-backed militias drawing global attention. US embassies and military installations overseas have been placed on heightened alert, and there is a non-negligible risk of symbolic attacks timed around the Fourth of July. While the homeland threat remains low, travelers abroad should stay updated on local advisories and avoid high-risk regions unless essential.
Federal agencies have warned that disinformation campaigns aimed at stoking political division could spike in the lead-up to the election season—and July 4 presents an ideal cultural flashpoint. Online chatter among militia-style groups and ideologically motivated actors has increased modestly in recent weeks, particularly around events perceived as symbols of federal authority or cultural change. Expect a visible law enforcement presence at politically charged celebrations or protests.
Impact Analysis and Recommended Course of Action:
Independence Day is meant to be a celebration of freedom, resilience, and unity—but in today’s complex risk environment, those ideals must be paired with preparation. Whether you’re traveling, attending a large event, or simply grilling in the backyard, keep your plans flexible and your situational awareness sharp. This year, the most patriotic thing you can do may be to celebrate responsibly—and stay informed. Consider contacting RMS International’s Intelligence Services for a detailed, customized threat assessment on Independence Day-specific threats that could impact your organization, people, assets, operations, and reputation.
Happy Fourth—and stay safe. Celebrate Smart, Stay Aware.
About RMS International:
Founded in 2012, RMS International provides ad hoc and contracted close protection, estate security, international travel management, corporate executive protection, personnel and asset security, and discreet investigative services. Operating a state-of-the-art Risk Operations Center in West Palm Beach, they provide 24/7 overwatch of global operations in Asia, Europe, Africa and throughout the Americas. RMS International delivers peace of mind in a chaotic world. Connect with us at RMSIUSA.com