RMS International’s Global Risk Forecast 2025

Executive Summary: 
The unprecedented and unpredictable events of the previous ear are expected to continue throughout 2025. This year the global security landscape will continue to be defined by a convergence of traditional and emerging threats, exacerbated by the ongoing challenges of geopolitical rivalry, technological disruptors, and environmental change. In every region, governments face the dual task of managing existing vulnerabilities while adapting to new and unprecedented threats

• Geopolitical Rivalry and Regional Instability: The ongoing geopolitical competition between major powers—particularly between the United States, China, and Russia—will continue to shape global tensions. Flashpoints in East Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Eastern Africa could spiral into broader and possibly global conflicts. Efforts to manage nuclear proliferation, territorial disputes, and international alliances will require constant diplomacy, while the risks of miscalculation and escalation remain high.
• Globalized Threats: Issues like climate change, pandemic preparedness, and global economic instability transcend national borders and will have profound implications for every country. Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and resource scarcity will increase migration, conflict, and economic disruption, while the global economy may face new vulnerabilities, driven by shifts in trade dynamics, debt crises, or technological disruption.
• Cybersecurity and Technology Risks: As digital infrastructure becomes more integral to every aspect of life; cybersecurity threats will grow in sophistication. State-sponsored hacking, cybercrime, artificial intelligence, and the weaponization of information could destabilize governments, corporations, and societies. The rise of artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons also introduces new risks to international stability and security.
• Organized Crime and Non-State Actors: The proliferation of organized criminal networks, insurgent groups, and extremist factions will continue to challenge state sovereignty and security. Whether through terrorism, drug trafficking, or human trafficking, non-state actors will exploit governance vacuums and weak institutions, particularly in fragile states.
• Social and Political Tensions: Many countries will face growing domestic unrest, driven by economic inequality, corruption, and political polarization. As social movements demand change and challenge entrenched power structures, governments will need to balance security measures with the protection of civil liberties. The rise of populism and authoritarianism in various regions could undermine democratic institutions and fuel internal conflict.
• Environmental Security: The degradation of ecosystems, loss of biodiversity, and growing environmental challenges will create competition for resources and heighten tensions between nations. Water scarcity, deforestation, and the impacts of climate change—including migration, food insecurity, and health crises—will be sources of both human suffering and geopolitical friction.

Situation Report (SITREP) and Threat Forecast:

The unprecedented and unpredictable events of the previous year are expected to continue throughout 2025. This year will continue the trends of impactful disruptors, or an individual, company, or form of technology that causes radical change in an existing industry, market, or political landscape by means of innovation.

Breaking thousands of years of tradition in which the geopolitical landscape was shaped by governments and regimes of all types, in 2025, the global community will continue to be shaped and disrupted by extremely wealthy non-state actors, such as Elon Musk and Bill Gates, and transnational or international organizations which continue to gain influence – seeing a powershift from weak and increasingly untrustworthy government institutions to private individuals and organizations.

After decades of center-left governance, the pendulum that is the international community has begun swinging to the right as noted by the election results in the United States, Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, and France – to name a few. Alarmists fear an immediate transition to far-right governance, which remains extremely unlikely. However, the transition of power to right-leaning politicians is expected to be met with resistance and possibly violence. Across the globe, hyper-polarization and political tensions are only expected to continue, fueled in part by social media created information silos and ideological bubbles and an alarmist media complex. Like the change in governance and policies, the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 and resulting tele-commuting have drastically changed the power and influence of international cities. While New York, London, Paris, Berlin, Frankfurt, Toronto, Dubai, Sydney, Shanghai, and Tokyo will likely remain key global finance centers, previously ignored and developing cities are increasingly becoming international centers of commerce. However, the developing cities, location disruptors, bring new and over-looked risks to business travelers and tourists alike.

Inflation will continue to challenge governments and financial institutions across the globe. Insecurity in government issued money has increased the value, purchase, and use of cryptocurrency, a financial technology (FinTech) disruptor. Prolonged inflation, price surges, and gouging disproportionately impact the poor and working middle class. Continued high-priced commodities, goods, and services, could spawn unrest and increase crime among struggling populations.

In addition to FinTech and financial disruptors, powerful artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are driving economic and technological advancements across the globe. However, these technologies – especially generative AI- are also having unintended consequence of adding layers of complexity to existing threats. In 2025, malicious cyber-actors will likely continue to use advancements in generative AI to incrementally enhance their ability to develop malware vulnerability scanning, and exploit tools and to improve their social engineering tactics and operations. Generative AI is helping threat actors generate, manipulate, and disseminate synthetic media, such as deepfakes, making it a particularly useful tool in influence campaigns. AI-generated and manipulated content – such as videos, audio, images, and text, all of which can include disinformation – have permeated the internet, impacting US search engine algorithms and video-streaming platforms. Additionally, violent extremists could leverage AI to generate content intended to sow social discord, encouraging real-world violence.  

Climate Change, previously referred to as “Global Warming,” is likely to continue to drive international policy and treaties; however, the influence of the weather phenomenon continues to diminish and likely won’t have the impact, support, or extremism of the Climate Accords of the recent past. The impacts of climate change and natural disasters will continue to pose acute and systemic challenges to the global community, often converging with and exacerbating more traditional security threats. Heat waves, wildfires, droughts, heavy precipitation, and other extreme weather events increase risks to transportation infrastructure, maritime shipping operations, and global supply chains.

On a more positive note, 2025 should bring more peace – or at least de-escalation – than previous years. Despite last minute escalations prompted by the lame-duck Biden Presidency, regional conflicts with international impact are likely to deescalate under a new and unpredictable administration. While tensions will remain enflamed, direct combat in both the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the ongoing Israel war against Hamas will likely decrease. However, targeted, strategic, and surgical operations and strikes remain likely in both conflicts.

Change is the only constant and advances in technology and communications have only increased the speed and effectiveness at which transformations now occur. This year, 2025, will bring continued change: positive, negative, and neutral. Governments, non-state actors, billionaires, multi-national corporations, and transnational organizations will bring and enforce changes and disruptions. Forecasting these emerging disruptors and risks can aid in business continuity and resiliency. To find out how to mitigate the risks contact RMS International’s security professionals at ask@rmsiusa.com to develop a customized and resilient protection plan to protect yourself and loved ones, as well as your organization, assets, personnel, operations and reputation.

Conclusion
As we look ahead to 2025, the global security landscape is defined by a convergence of traditional and emerging threats, compounded by the ongoing challenges of geopolitical rivalry, technological disruption, and environmental change. In every region, governments face the dual task of managing existing vulnerabilities while adapting to new and unpredictable risks.

• Geopolitical Rivalry and Regional Instability: The ongoing geopolitical competition between major powers—particularly between the United States, China, and Russia—will continue to shape global tensions. Flashpoints in East Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa could spiral into broader conflicts. Efforts to manage nuclear proliferation, territorial disputes, and international alliances will require constant diplomacy, as the risks of miscalculation and escalation remain high.
• Globalized Threats: Issues like climate change, pandemic preparedness, and global economic instability transcend national borders and will have profound implications for every country. Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and resource scarcity will increasingly drive migration, conflict, and economic disruption, while the global economy may face new vulnerabilities, driven by shifts in trade dynamics, debt crises, or technological disruption.
• Cybersecurity and Technology Risks: As digital infrastructure becomes more integral to every aspect of life, cybersecurity threats will grow in sophistication. State-sponsored hacking, cybercrime, and the weaponization of information could destabilize governments, corporations, and societies. The rise of artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons also introduces new risks to international stability and security.
• Organized Crime and Non-State Actors: The proliferation of organized criminal networks, insurgent groups, and extremist factions will continue to challenge state sovereignty and security. Whether through terrorism, drug trafficking, or human trafficking, non-state actors will exploit governance vacuums and weak institutions, particularly in fragile states.
• Social and Political Tensions: Many countries will face growing domestic unrest, driven by economic inequality, corruption, and political polarization. As social movements demand change and challenge entrenched power structures, governments will need to balance security measures with the protection of civil liberties. The rise of populism and authoritarianism in various regions could undermine democratic institutions and fuel internal conflict.
• Environmental Security: The degradation of ecosystems, loss of biodiversity, and growing environmental challenges will create competition for resources and heighten tensions between nations. Water scarcity, deforestation, and the impacts of climate change—including migration, food insecurity, and health crises—will be sources of both human suffering and geopolitical friction.

Strategic Implications for Global Security:

• Collaboration and Diplomacy will be more critical than ever. Multilateral approaches, strong international alliances, and proactive diplomacy will be required to manage the interconnected threats of the 21st century.
• Technological Adaptation and Resilience are key for nations to safeguard their security. Ensuring resilience in the face of cyberattacks and technological disruption will be central to maintaining stability in an increasingly digitized world.
• Local and Regional Solutions will be crucial in addressing crises such as migration, inequality, and environmental degradation. Governments must tailor solutions to local contexts while embracing global cooperation on shared challenges.
• Preparedness for New Risks will be essential. The unpredictability of future threats—from emerging pandemics to the potential for new geopolitical flashpoints—requires an agile, anticipatory approach to international security.
  
  

As the world moves toward 2025, the intersection of political, economic, technological, and environmental factors will determine the trajectory of global stability. While challenges are considerable, opportunities for innovation, cooperation, and resilience remain. How the international community responds to these threats will define not only the security environment of 2025, but the long-term sustainability of peace and prosperity in the decades to come.

Recommended Course of Action:
Individuals, families, or organizations concerned with any of the risks detailed and forecasted for the upcoming year should consider consulting RMS International’s intelligence and security professionals for a customized, tailored threat assessment. To find out how to mitigate the risks associated with the new year, consider contacting RMS International’s security professionals at ask@rmsiusa.com to develop a customized and resilient protection plan to protect yourself, as well as your organization, assets, personnel, operations and reputation.

About RMS International:

Founded in 2013, RMS International provides ad hoc and contracted close protection, estate security, international travel management, corporate executive protection, personnel and asset security, and discreet investigative services.  Operating a state-of-the-art Risk Operations Center in West Palm Beach, they provide 24/7 overwatch of global operations in Asia, Europe, Africa and throughout the Americas.  RMS International delivers peace of mind in a chaotic world.  Visit us at RMSIUSA.com.