Situation Report (SITREP):
- Protest activity, vandalism, and politically-motivated violence is possible before, during, and after the November 2024 Presidential Election.
- Government officials, law enforcement officers, and businesses may begin strengthening their security posture in anticipation of either rowdy celebrations or riots prompted by disappointed election results.
- For individuals and organizations, especially entities that are aligned politically, it would be prudent to prepare for election day violence or vandalism.
- Residences or offices located near government buildings, high profile residences or campaign sites should develop or review emergency action plans, including information pertaining to widespread civil disturbances and politically motivated violence.
Situation Report (SITREP):
In annual threat forecasts and related products, nearly every intelligence agency – both public and private sector- predicted a tense and hyper-partisan election cycle in the United States (US). While many experts and pundits predicted an increase in protests, civil disturbances, boycotts, and possible workplace tensions, few intelligence analysts predicted there would be at least two assassination attempts on a presidential candidate. Following the failed assassination plots, bipartisan high-profile politicians on both side of the aisle called to turn down the political rhetoric. Despite the bipartisan initiative, with less than two weeks before the election campaign language remains volatile and hostile, with one candidate labeling their opponent a “fascist” and other high-profile politicians drawing comparisons to Adolf Hitler.
According to a now prolific report by the Pew Research Center, 7 in 10 – a vast majority of Americans, believe elected officials should avoid heated or aggressive language because it could encourage extremists to engage in violent action. This poll was conducted in January, well before the two assassination attempts on a presidential candidate. The continued volatile rhetoric combined with the multiple assassination attempts highlight legitimate concerns over political violence in all stages of the November 2024 Presidential Election. While the US has largely experienced peaceful transitions of power, historically, the country is not immune to politically motivated violence. In the nearly 250 years of the United States’ existence, four presidents have been assassinated, 2 presidents have been shot and not killed, and 4 others have had attempts carried out with no impact to the intended target (bystanders and others were killed or wounded in several of these). Additionally, on January 8, 2011, an individual targeted Representative Gabrielle Gifford at a campaign event in Tucson, Arizona. In 2017, an individual opened fire at the Congressional baseball game. Most recently, disruptive rioting at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, resulted in the death of a protestor.
Impact Analysis:
While the upcoming November 2024 Presidential Election remains a very fluid situation and polling remains too close to predict a clear winner, government officials, law enforcement officers, and businesses may begin strengthening their security posture in anticipation of either rowdy celebrations or riots prompted by disappointed election results. In the November 2020 Presidential Election, businesses in New York’s iconic Fifth Avenue, and other major cities boarded up their windows to prevent destruction and looting. Additionally, there may be concentrated efforts to protest and demonstrate leading up to, during, and after the elections. The general public can expect traffic disruptions and increased security near polling stations.
Recommended Course of Action:
For individuals and organizations, especially entities that are aligned politically, it would be prudent to prepare for election day violence or vandalism. Similarly, residences or offices located near government buildings, high profile residences or campaign sites should develop or review emergency action plans, including information pertaining to widespread civil disturbances and politically motivated violence. Individuals and organizations in the vicinity of potential targets should develop and implement resiliency and continuity of operations plans in the event security protocols, protests, unrest, or political-motivated violence prompts road or office closures. Individuals are advised to avoid any large gatherings or demonstrations as even peaceful protests have the potential to turn violent with little-to-no warning. To find out how to mitigate the risks of civil disturbances or politically-motivated violence consider contacting RMS International’s security professionals at ask@rmsiusa.com to develop a customized and resilient protection plan to protect yourself and loved ones, as well as your organization, assets, personnel, operations and reputation.
About RMS International:
Founded in 2013, RMS International provides ad hoc and contracted close protection, estate security, international travel management, corporate executive protection, personnel and asset security, and discreet investigative services. Operating a state-of-the-art Risk Operations Center in West Palm Beach, they provide 24/7 overwatch of global operations in Asia, Europe, Africa and throughout the Americas. RMS International delivers peace of mind in a chaotic world. Visit us at RMSIUSA.com.
