Political Violence and Volatility in the 2024 Election: Assassination Attempt Highlights Risk of Hyper-Polarization

On 13 July 2024, an individual attempted to assassinate former President Donald J. Trump at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania. Video footage of the incident shows Trump dive to the ground behind the podium after several audible gunshots. Seconds later, the former president is then surrounded by a team of US Secret Service agents. Trump then raises a fist before being escorted off stage and driven from the event in a black sport utility vehicle. Members of the physical security and executive protection detail shot and killed the would-be assassin who was positioned on a nearby rooftop roughly 400 feet from the podium. At least one bystander was killed during the incident. Trump sustained an injury to his right ear, narrowly avoiding a potentially fatal injury with a slight turn of his head. The US Secret Service is currently investigating what the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has described as an assassination attempt. The politically motivated violence occurred just days before the 2024 Republican National Convention scheduled to take place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The majority of threat forecasts predicted a tense and possibly violent year in the US due to the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized climate. The recent assassination attempt highlights legitimate concerns over political violence in the lead up to the November 2024 Presidential Election. While the US has largely experienced peaceful transitions of power, historically, the country has experienced politically motivated violence. In the nearly 250 years of the United States’ existence, four presidents have been assassinated, 2 presidents have been shot and not killed, and 4 others have had attempts carried out with no impact to the intended target (bystanders and others were killed or wounded in several of these). Additionally, on January 8, 2011, an individual targeted Representative Gabrielle Gifford at a campaign event in Tucson, Arizona. In 2017, an individual opened fire at the Congressional baseball game. Most recently, disruptive rioting at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, resulted in the death of a protestor.

Impact Analysis:

Should the political climate and rhetoric remain volatile, with accusations of individuals being a “threat to democracy” continue, politically motivated violence across the country could potentially increase in intensity and frequency. The attempted assassination raises concerns over security and asset hardening at political rallies and campaign events. Upcoming rallies, speeches, and high-profile events, such as the Republican and Democratic National Conventions (RNC and DNC) will likely adopt an increased security posture. A heavy law enforcement presence, to include federal, state, and local officials, are likely at any future political events.Despite nationwide calls to “tone down the rhetoric” stemming from leaders in both political parties, the shooting is likely to increase tensions and hyper-polarization. Radical supporters of both candidates could use the incident as justification for vigilantism and could possibly target political institutions, campaign offices, lobbying organizations, politically aligned non-profits, and even houses of worship.

Public shows of support to include demonstrations and vigils are likely near any event featuring former President Trump. Gatherings are likely outside his campaign events, as well as his Fifth Avenue and Palm Beach residences in the immediate-to-near future.

Lastly, the incident is likely to exacerbate the legitimacy crisis plaguing major news organizations and media outlets. Currently, the US citizenry maintains a near record low trust in news media. The number has been increasing since 2018 and has likely dramatically increased following the widely publicized Presidential Debate. Ineffective and delayed public relations regarding the assassination attempt has only fueled misinformation and conspiracy theories, with a growing number of the populace debating whether or not the government was somehow involved in the shooting or if protective agencies are just incompetent and can no longer perform even basic tasks.

Recommended Course of Action:
For individuals and organizations, especially entities that are aligned politically, it would be prudent to prepare for additional or retaliatory violence. Similarly, residences or offices located near government buildings, high profile residences or campaign sites should develop or review emergency action plans, including information pertaining to active shooter response. Individuals and organizations in the vicinity of potential targets should develop and implement resiliency and continuity of operations plans in the event security protocols, protests, unrest, or political-motivated violence prompts road or office closures. To find out how to mitigate the risks of civil disturbances or politically-motivated violence consider contacting RMS International’s security professionals at ask@rmsiusa.com to develop a customized and resilient protection plan to protect yourself and loved ones, as well as your organization, assets, personnel, operations and reputation.

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About RMS International:
Founded in 2013, RMS International provides ad hoc and contracted close protection, estate security, international travel management, corporate executive protection, personnel and asset security, and discreet investigative services.  Operating a state-of-the-art Risk Operations Center in West Palm Beach, they provide 24/7 overwatch of global operations in Asia, Europe, Africa and throughout the Americas.  RMS International delivers peace of mind in a chaotic world.  Connect with us at RMSIUSA.com