Executive Summary:
- As of 10 March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the Trump administration officially canceled 83% of US foreign aid contracts.
- At this point, the long-term effects remain uncertain, but disruptions to the global aid system could potentially destabilize governments, fuel anti American sentiment, embolden non-state actors, and open the door for other nations to expand their influence and fill the financial void.
- Organizations or individuals with interests in developing countries should carefully monitor the cuts’ impact on countries with frequent corporate travel or established offices, particularly regarding anti-American sentiment.
- Consider contacting RMS International’s Intelligence Services for custom enhanced security measures such as vetted transportation, executive protection agents, and pre-travel threat assessments when traveling to impacted countries.
Situation Report (SITREP):
On 26 February, the White House announced plans to cut over 90% of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) contracts. This followed the 20 January executive order halting work at USAID for most employees and contractors, effectively freezing foreign aid disbursements. While a ruling from US District Court Judge Amir Ali, a Biden appointee, and upheld in review by the US Supreme Court, required the administration to pay aid organizations for work already completed under contract (around $2 billion), the decision does not otherwise change the situation. As of 10 March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the Trump administration officially canceled 83% of US foreign aid contracts. 1 As the world’s largest single donor, USAID disburses approximately $40 billion of the $68 billion allocated by Congress for foreign aid.
At this point, the long-term effects of the dramatic USIAD cuts remain uncertain, but disruptions to the global aid system could potentially destabilize nations and governments, fuel anti-American sentiment, embolden non-state actors, and create a power vacuum allowing other nations to expand their sphere of influence. However, these cuts could also deprive corrupt institutions of vital funds and eliminate the financial resources that terrorist organizations, criminals, and militant groups often divert for their own agendas.
Impact Analysis and Recommended Course of Action:
USAID has long been a cornerstone of US soft power diplomacy, helping to reinforce stability in fragile states. With local governments now reallocating resources once supported by aid, there’s a risk of a dangerous chain reaction, where non-state actors and foreign governments rush to fill the gap. Taking that into account, there are also cases where halting misused aid could have a positive impact – eliminating corruption and power leveraged by bad actors. Organizations or individuals with interests in developing countries should carefully monitor the cuts’ impact on countries where they have frequent corporate travel or established offices.
Anti-American sentiment, which may intensify when leaders, facing unrest, shift the blame for disappearing aid and services onto the US, may be a growing concern. When traveling overseas for business or pleasure a proactive travel management plan would be prudent. Consider contacting RMS International’s Intelligence Services for a custom enhanced travel management plan that includes security measures such as vetted transportation, executive protection agents, and pre-travel threat assessments when traveling to impacted countries.
About RMS International:
Founded in 2012, RMS International provides ad hoc and contracted close protection, estate security, international travel management, corporate executive protection, personnel and asset security, and discreet investigative services. Operating a state-of-the-art Risk Operations Center in West Palm Beach, they provide 24/7 overwatch of global operations in Asia, Europe, Africa and throughout the Americas. RMS International delivers peace of mind in a chaotic world. Connect with us at RMSIUSA.com.
