EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Geographic Scope: United States (with DC emphasis where applicable)
Assessment Date: February 2026
Overall Monthly Risk Level: 🟠 MODERATE–ELEVATED
February 2026 presents a compressed risk environment driven by a convergence of major holidays, mass-gathering events, religious observances, and planned political demonstrations, particularly in Washington, DC. The highest-risk windows fall around Super Bowl Sunday (Feb 8), Mardi Gras/Lunar New Year (Feb 17), and late-month democracy-related mobilizations (Feb 21 and Feb 27–28). Organizations should anticipate crowd density, alcohol-related disorder, protest/counter-protest dynamics, transportation disruption, and heightened soft-target exposure.
WEEKLY RISK OVERVIEW
Week 1 | Feb 1–7
Risk Level: 🟡 GUARDED
Key Themes: Routine observances, baseline winter travel
Notable Dates
- Feb 1 – National Freedom Day
- Feb 2 – Groundhog Day
Risk Notes
- Low overall threat profile
- Normal winter weather disruptions possible
- Early Black History Month programming begins (localized events)
Mitigation
- Standard situational awareness
- Monitor local event permits in urban cores
Week 2 | Feb 8–14
Risk Level: 🔴 ELEVATED
Key Themes: Mass gatherings, alcohol consumption, nightlife surge
Notable Dates
- Feb 8 – Super Bowl Sunday 🔴
- Feb 12 – Lincoln’s Birthday (limited observance)
- Feb 14 – Valentine’s Day 🟠
Risk Notes
- Large crowds at stadiums, sports bars, casinos, and private venues
- Elevated DUI, assaults, theft, and medical calls
- Increased soft-target exposure at hospitality venues
Mitigation
- Increase security staffing and access control at watch-party venues
- Emphasize DUI prevention and rideshare coordination
- Heighten monitoring around entertainment districts
Week 3 | Feb 15–21
Risk Level: 🔴 ELEVATED
Key Themes: Federal holiday travel + cultural/religious convergence + protests
Notable Dates
- Feb 16 – Presidents’ Day (Federal Holiday) 🟠
- Feb 17 – Mardi Gras / Fat Tuesday 🔴
- Feb 17 – Lunar New Year (Year of the Horse) 🟠
- Feb 18 – Ash Wednesday 🟡
- Feb 21 – Ukraine War Anniversary Rally & March (Washington, DC) 🔴
Risk Notes
- Long-weekend travel congestion
- Carnival celebrations drive high alcohol consumption and disorder risk
- Large parades and cultural festivals in major metros
- Planned rally and march in DC with counter-protest potential
Mitigation
- Avoid non-essential travel to DC on Feb 21
- Harden perimeters near parade routes and civic monuments
- Monitor activist channels for last-minute route changes or spillover events
Week 4 | Feb 22–28
Risk Level: 🔴 ELEVATED
Key Themes: Political activism, multi-day demonstrations, federal focus
Notable Dates
- Feb 20 – World Day of Social Justice 🟡
- Feb 27–28 – “March 4 Democracy” Mobilization (Washington, DC) 🔴
Risk Notes
- Two-day protest cycle with lobbying, marches, and gatherings
- Potential for counter-demonstrations and traffic shutdowns
- Increased law-enforcement posture around federal buildings
Mitigation
- Remote work recommendations for DC-based staff where feasible
- Advance route mapping and alternative transportation planning
- Executive movement monitoring and real-time alerts via ROC
MONTH-LONG OBSERVANCE
- Black History Month (February) 🟠
Sustained calendar of public events, lectures, and rallies. While generally peaceful, some events may intersect with social-justice activism depending on local issues. - The New START nuclear arms-control treaty between the United States and Russia expires.
- The Winter Olympics begin in Milan and Cortina.
- The 2026 Men’s T20 cricket World Cup begins in India and Sri Lanka.
- Bangladesh is due to hold a general election.
CROSS-CUTTING RISK THEMES
- Soft-Target Density: Sports, parades, nightlife, and cultural festivals
- Alcohol & Disorder: Super Bowl, Mardi Gras, Valentine’s Day
- Political Symbolism: DC protests, federal holidays, democracy-focused messaging
- Transportation Disruption: Road closures, transit delays, rideshare strain
RECOMMENDED SECURITY ACTIONS
- Daily protest and event monitoring (especially DC and major metros)
- Reinforced access control and bag policies at public venues
- Executive travel risk reviews for mid- and late-February
- Coordination with local law enforcement and venue security
- Clear internal comms on travel advisories and protest avoidance
ABOUT RMS INTERNATIONAL
Founded in 2012, RMS International provides ad hoc and contracted executive and close protection services, corporate and residential security, travel security management programs, cyber security, and full-scale intelligence services. RMS International operates a state-of-the-art Risk Operations Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, providing 24/7/365 overwatch of global operations throughout the Americas, Middle East, Asia, Europe, and Africa. RMS International delivers peace of mind in a chaotic world. Connect with us at: www.RMSIUSA.com.