After Action Report (AAR):
- Earlier this year, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasted above-average storm activity in the 2024 Hurricane Season.
- On 25 September, Hurricane Helene brought the first wave of torrential rain to Western North Carolina.
- Helene devastated Western North Carolina bringing aerial and flash flooding, disrupting the public water supply and electrical system, and knocking out internet and cell phone service. Machetes, technical devices, and chemical substances were confiscated from the suspects’ houses and are currently being evaluated.
- Authorities in Buncombe County have expressed frustration with the federal government’s slow response.
- Weeks later, Hurricane Milton, a Category 3 storm system, would make landfall on Florida’s west coast.
- In the aftermath of both storm systems opportunistic criminals began engaging in larceny, thefts, and burglaries of both residential and businesses.
- A historic number of calls were made to emergency services in the southeastern United States.
Incident Overview:
Earlier this year, RMS International’s Intelligence Department noted the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasted above-average storm activity in the 2024 Hurricane Season. However, the warnings of meteorologists and risk-averse intelligence specialists were not enough to prepare local, state, federal government agencies, and the general public for nearly back-to-back hurricanes that devastated parts of Western North Carolina and West-Central Florida.
On 25 September, Hurricane Helene brought the first wave of torrential rain to Western North Carolina. The storm system had previously made landfall 500 miles away in Florida’s Big Bend region. The system was expected to continue to weaken as it moved away from the US coast and further inland; however, remnants of Helene devastated Western North Carolina bringing aerial and flash flooding, disrupting the public water supply and electrical system, and knocking out internet and cell phone service. Residents were left without food, water, shelter, supplies – and even information. As of this publication, the death toll associated with Hurricane Helene, one of the worst storms in US history, has reached 133 people; however, many -including children- are still unaccounted for. Residents and local government officials have harshly criticized the federal government’s response. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), a government organization dedicated to disaster relief and emergency response with a $29.5 billion annual budget, has been accused of mismanaging operations and being slow to act on the relief efforts. In a widely publicized news conference, Buncombe County Manager Avril Pinder expressed frustration with the federal government’s slow response, “We’ve been asking for water, and we’re just getting water, and it’s still in low quantities. There’s a large need in our community, and we would like to see a different response from our state partners, a better response from out state partners,” which fulfills requests through FEMA.
Weeks later, Hurricane Milton, a Category 3 storm system, made landfall on Florida’s west coast. Milton had sustained winds of 120 mph at landfall, but its strength diminished to Category 1 as it moved inland across the state. The hurricane also brought an unprecedented number of tornadoes and twisters across the mostly-flat state, leaving many without power and internet for a brief amount of time. In the aftermath, Hurricane Milton has been linked to at least 12 deaths, many far from the eye of the storm system.
Unsurprisingly, in the devastation and aftermath of both storm systems opportunistic criminals began engaging in larceny, thefts, and burglaries of both residential and businesses. In the hours and days that followed the unprecedented levels of damage brought on by the storm system, a historic number of calls were made to emergency services in the southeastern United States. According to one local 911 call center, dispatchers answered 8,382 calls from Sept. 26 through Sept. 29. On Sept. 27, the day Helene hit the CSRA, dispatchers picked up the phone more than 3,500 times alone. Thus, an already exacerbated police force and team of first responders were inundated with the added task of dealing with opportunistic criminals in addition to performing rescue and disaster relief functions.
Impact Analysis:
While the devastation caused by both hurricanes remains a very fluid situation and is subject to change, there are some lessons to be learned from an initial after-action report (AAR). First and foremost, everyone from authorities in the highest positions of government to the public seem to have succumbed to what experts refer to as the “normalcy bias,” a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. The normalcy bias causes many people to prepare inadequately for natural disasters and can manifest in response to warnings about disasters and actual catastrophes. Normalcy bias has also been called analysis paralysis, the ostrich effect, and by first responders, the negative panic.
Despite the NOAA’s forecast for a usually active hurricane season, so many seemed caught off guard from a storm system with days of advanced warning. One can speculate on the reasons for this, attributing the “analysis paralysis” to an overly sensationalized, panic-infused 24-hour media cycle, significant mistrust in government institutions following the coronavirus pandemic, or the mere thought that “it could never happen to me.” No matter the reason, the outcome for all cases is catastrophic.
On the other hand, the opposite of the normalcy bias is called “overreacting” which brings its own onslaught of problems. However, a balance between the normalcy bias and worst-case scenario thinking can be reached with proper and adequate storm preparation. Additionally, while the public has become accustomed to government response, social media aid campaigns, and celebrity benefit performances, safety and security is ultimately the responsibility of the individual and should not be delegated to the government, celebrities, or social media influencers.
Recommended Course of Action:
While the media coverage of the two recent hurricanes can seem overwhelming, there are several preventative and basic steps that can be taken to mitigate the impact of severe storm systems. The NOAA has predicted an active hurricane season, and more named storms are not only possible, but likely. Individuals and organizations residing in areas frequently impacted by hurricanes should store ample supplies of water, non-perishable food, medical supplies -including prescription medication, pet food and supplies, flashlights, batteries, candles, and hand-powered radios. Severe storms may prompt transportation, power, and telecommunications disruptions which may negatively an individual or organizations continuity operations. Proper planning and mitigative steps can ensure resiliency – on both the personal and organizational level. To find out how to mitigate the risks of hurricanes, tropical storms, or any other severe weather systems and natural disasters consider contacting RMS International’s security professionals at ask@rmsiusa.com to develop a customized and resilient protection plan to protect yourself and loved ones, as well as your organization, assets, personnel, operations and reputation.
About RMS International:
Founded in 2013, RMS International provides ad hoc and contracted close protection, estate security, international travel management, corporate executive protection, personnel and asset security, and discreet investigative services. Operating a state-of-the-art Risk Operations Center in West Palm Beach, they provide 24/7 overwatch of global operations in Asia, Europe, Africa and throughout the Americas. RMS International delivers peace of mind in a chaotic world. Visit us at RMSIUSA.com.
