In late December 2025 and early January 2026, RMS International published its Global Threat Forecast for the year ahead. As Q1 draws to a close, we’ve revisited those projections to assess how the operating environment has evolved and where early indicators are aligning with what RMS International anticipated. While no forecast is ever perfect, the first quarter has reinforced the direction of the trends RMSI’s Intelligence Services identified, offering increased confidence in how the threat landscape is taking shape as we move into Q2.
RMS International’s central thesis remains unchanged: in 2026, global security teams across both public and private sectors are operating under sustained pressure driven by the convergence of geopolitical tension, infrastructure fragility, and rapidly advancing technologies. The boundary between physical and digital risk continues to erode, requiring more senior-level engagement, tighter cross-functional coordination, and faster response and recovery cycles.
Several of the key trends outlined in our original forecast are now materializing in real time. Disruptions to critical infrastructure, such as the large-scale Verizon outage, highlight the systemic impact even non-malicious failures can have on critical infrastructure and key resources, in addition to communications and emergency services. At the same time, the domestic threat environment is increasingly shaped by societal division and targeted acts of violence, as demonstrated by the incidents in Austin,Texas, at Old Dominion University, and at a Michigan synagogue, reflecting a broader shift toward grievance-driven, soft-target attacks.
Globally, maritime security and supply chain risks remain elevated, particularly in the context of US–Iran tensions and the strategic importance of energy corridors. Meanwhile, cascading infrastructure challenges, illustrated by aviation disruptions and staffing shortages, underscore how localized issues can quickly scale into national-level impacts prompting cascading infrastructure failures. Finally, the proliferation of weaponized unmanned aerial systems or “drones,” from state actors to criminal organizations, continues to lower the barrier to entry for asymmetric threats.
Taken together, these developments are less about isolated incidents and more about confirmation of a broader pattern: a risk environment defined by interconnection, acceleration, and compounding effects. As we look ahead to Q2, the focus is not just on what’s emerging, but on how these trends interact, amplify one another, and reshape the security landscape in ways that demand proactive, intelligence-led adaptation.
Trends Taking Shape in 2026: In late 2025, RMS International predicted five trends that were expected to continue or emerge across the globe:
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About RMS International
The world is unpredictable. Your security shouldn’t be. Founded in 2012, RMS International delivers discreet executive protection, intelligence, cyber security, and global travel risk management. From our Risk Operations Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, our analysts maintain continuous global overwatch—tracking emerging threats and safeguarding operations across five continents.
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